Andrew Hunt - April 2016

 World leading International Economist, writes a monthly newsletter on the state of the world from an economic, and therefore investment, perspective.

We are fans because Andrew:

  • Has an opinion
  • Does not regurgitate the same view as the bulk of the media
  • Supports his view with research and evidence that many others don't seem to undertake

Beware! Andrew's views are not for the feint hearted.

This month's topic - China's Global Importance

Andrew reflects that "we suspect that if China were to impose capital controls and then experience faster domestic inflation as a consequence, as we believe it would, it would lead to higher world trade prices (perhaps good news for manufacturers in the short term) but it would ultimately be extremely damaging to the world’s interest rate sensitive sectors such as most financial markets, property markets and even some service sector entities. However, if China allows the RMB to decline, we would expect more global deflation that would eventually lead to some form of fiscal / helicopter money type reaction from Western policymakers. Given these possible scenarios, we are minded to believe that the current ’Phoney War’ over the RMB is simply a calm before some form of storm that will either be inflationary or deflationary depending upon the fate of the RMB."

Read the full article here

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